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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, December 27, 2023
It is possible to trigger an avalanche in areas where fresh slabs of wind drifted snow overly weak, sugary snow underneath. Fresh wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is sign of instability. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and areas of greatest deposition such as the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features including gully walls and sub-ridges.
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Weather and Snow
7" of snow fell in lower North Creek (Buckboard SNOTEL) on Saturday, Dec 23. This incremental load has begun to stress a weak, underlying snowpack. NW winds over the past several days have added to the mix by blowing and drifting fresh slabs on top of the weak snow. Colin Tucker was out and about on Tuesday, and he reported finding unstable slabs of wind drifted snow, as well as red flag signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing. See his observation here. This does not bode well for the future with such a shallow snowpack already displaying signs of instability. Any future snowload will only increase the danger. For now, avoid steep, wind drifted slopes. Even a small avalanche triggered in these shallow conditions would be a rough and bumpy ride.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Additional Information
The snowpit below was dug on a northeast aspect just below North Creek Pass. It shows a very weak, underlying snowpack. The line through the middle is a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow, and everything below it is faceted as well. This creates an unstable base for future snowloads and we'll be keeping our eye on it.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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