Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Tuesday morning, March 26, 2024

Today, there is a MODERATE avalanche danger on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations where human triggered soft slab avalanches are possible. The avalanche danger is LOW in lower elevation terrain.

Evaluate snow and terrain carefully today as the likelihood of triggering an avalanche will increase with additional precipitation, wind transport, and any hint of March sun that may create periods of increased instability.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Currently under overcast skies and light snow temperatures are in the mid-20's °F. Winds are blowing lightly from the southwest gusting to the 20's MPH. There was another 1"-2" of new snow in the last 24 hours bringing measured storm totals to 10"-14" of snow and .60"-1.30" of water weight.

Today, look for overcast skies with increasing chances of snow, wind, and lightning this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to be 30-35°F with winds blowing from the west 15 gusting to 20 MPH at the 9,000' ridge-lines and 30 gusting to 35 MPH at the 11,000' ridge-lines with chances for higher winds during increased snowfall. Look for 1"-2" of new snow with the off chance of 2"-4" and up to .30" water with increasing snowfall rates and winds this afternoon. The freezing level should stay around 5,000' which means that with cloudy skies and colder temperatures the snow surface will stay soft making for excellent travel today. With any hint of sun today the snow surface will heat up quickly and green-housing could occur on all aspects and elevations.

Read the updated forecast discussion from our partners at the National Weather Service HERE.

Recent Avalanches

There were no observations from the Provo Area yesterday. Just north of the Provo Forecast Region (which is similar to the higher elevation northern section of the Provo Area) we had reports of soft slab avalanches up to 10"-18" deep in Main Days, Argenta, Kessler, Broads, Gobblers, and Cardiff. The avalanche that got my attention was in Silver Fork. It was reported as 2.5' deep, 100' wide and ran 400' vertical feet (photo below). This avalanche is unique in that it appears to have started as a dry snow avalanche that took a hint of warming and then transitioned to a wet snow avalanche. It is much deeper than the other reported avalanches from the last two days and has more slab like characteristics. This avalanche is similar to what often happens in the longer running paths above Provo Canyon and may be something that you are likely to see today where an avalanche runs down into lower elevation terrain.

(Photo: Yannick)

Read all the observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Over the last few days, the new snow has been reactive to backcountry travelers. The layer of weakness in most cases has been density changes within the newest snow. This weak layer was starting to settle out below 8,000' where it has become more difficult to trigger avalanches at lower elevations. The standout avalanche was the slide (photo above) in Silver Fork that was much deeper and had more slab characteristics than other reported avalanches. This debris in this slide was deep enough to have buried a rider and while it still meets the description fitting of moderate avalanche danger it would be considered a large avalanche in an isolated area.

Today, it will be possible trigger a new snow avalanche failing on a density change. Any new snow that comes in this afternoon will be sensitive to backcountry travelers on steep slopes. IF the slope has had any wind or sun affect you may be able to trigger soft slab avalanches 14"-18" deep breaking above you.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Springtime in the mountains. What this means is that like the last weekend at your favorite ski resort most anything goes. You may see new snow avalanches, wind-drifted snow avalanches, wet snow avalanches, green-housing (filtered sun creating rapid warming of the snowpack at all elevations and aspects), glide avalanches, and thunder snow.

It's the time of year when it's easy to fall back on heuristic traps based on past experience, particularly familiarity. Keep your head about you when traveling in the mountains as even a small avalanche could have real consequences. Read more about heuristics and decision making from local avalanche researcher Ian McCammon HERE.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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