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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, March 19, 2024
This is going to sound like a broken record this week because we have benign springtime conditions.
The overall avalanche danger rating for the Skyline is generally LOW.
LOW does not mean NO avalanche danger. It means there is a low threat, but there is still a threat.
Daytime heating of the snow can make it become unstable.
Simply avoid being on or below steep slopes if they become really wet and sloppy, especially later in the day.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Temperatures were into the 40s on Monday with light east wind. The snow surface is frozen hard in the morning then softens during the day. There might be a slight hint of soft cold snow on the highest due north facing steep slopes.
Mountain Weather: High pressure is in place basically throughout the week. Expect daytime high temperatures in the 40s and overnight low temperatures around freezing. It looks like we'll see some clouds moving through Thursday through Saturday. Weather models indicate decent storms from about March 25th through April 3rd.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We have a mostly stable snowpack right now and the chances for triggering an avalanche are pretty low.
Here's the pattern we're in.
  1. The snow is frozen up in the morning.
  2. Daytime heating causes it to soften and become wet.
  3. If it gets too wet, it can become unstable and avalanches can release.
  4. If you find the snow super wet and sloppy, it's time to start avoiding being below or on steep slopes and stay out of steep walled gullies and ravines.
  5. At night, the snow cools down again, freezes and becomes stable.
  6. The next day, the cycle starts again.
Additional Information
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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